UMA Vote 2606 Case Study

UMA-resolved prediction markets are compromised. Here's what the data shows.

69% of UMA voters who resolved a Polymarket-related oracle also trade on Polymarket. In Iran-related markets alone, 12–20 voters held positions in the same geopolitical events they helped resolve. That's a conflict of interest—and the on-chain data proves it.

The Problem

How UMA resolution works
When a Polymarket market resolves, anyone can propose an outcome by staking collateral. There's a 2-hour challenge period. If disputed twice, the case escalates to UMA's Data Verification Mechanism (DVM), where UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome. Vote 2606 (March 2026) had 584 voters.
The conflict
Voters who hold positions in a market can vote on its outcome. They may vote in favor of their own positions. There is no separation between voters and traders—the same addresses do both.
Platforms affected
Polymarket (primary), and any other prediction market that uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle for decentralized resolution.

Data-driven facts

Polymarket overlap

69%

of UMA voters (401 of 584) also trade on Polymarket

Iran Hormuz markets

20

UMA voters held positions in Iran Strait of Hormuz markets

Iran strike countries

12

UMA voters traded in “Which countries will Iran strike in March?”

Iran strikes Israel

13

UMA voters traded in “Iran strikes Israel on...?” (~$97K volume)

Source: UMA Vote 2606 (March 2026), Dune Analytics. View research dashboard →

Risk signals explained

Voter–position overlap

401 of 584 UMA voters (69%) in Vote 2606 also trade on Polymarket. At least one top-10 UMA whale has a confirmed Polymarket account. Voters who hold positions can vote in favor of their own outcomes.

Large positions in resolved markets

In "Which countries will Iran strike in March?", 12 UMA voters held positions—including whales with 1M+ UMA. One voter held 6,120 No shares ($4,271) on Cyprus; another 4,598 Yes shares ($638) on Turkey.

Proxy mapping is critical

Without proxy wallet mapping (Gnosis Safe owner → proxy), only 1 voter would be detected. Via proxy: 400 voters. Same EOA votes on Ethereum and trades on Polygon through a proxy.

UMA voters with positions in Iran strike markets

12 UMA voters held positions in "Which countries will Iran strike in March?" (Vote 2606)

Same addresses voted on the resolution and traded on Polymarket.

AddressUMA votedMarkets traded
0x86cc5e1e8fb20102fa7a0fa4afeaf1cbe1be273d~1.85MCyprus
0x28ec3b46262c614df6d5a3ff2726c9746f1d1675~1.70MTurkey
0xd959c3a00694183fe1698d0d98db2c980b866ae3~1.23MJordan
0x2c3badf33f512770fdd009854e06af8310c3d6e6~1.17MTurkey, Syria, Pakistan
0x790b5bf583a11e3f4cee9003c0b420a06dc4f04f~1.07MCyprus
0x89db2ba3d788ea8bc566c736a2a72db6b24f3b7e~1.07MCyprus, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey
0x94c09ca26ba1d974db8bd84b6edbd2f576283e7b~1.02MTurkey
0x172dac46547096bb8c936461b3ed3c2ad6b246a9~473KCyprus, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria
0xa847991db779c94a141dbedfb4c374e6e64bc71c~465KJordan, Lebanon, Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, Cyprus, Turkey
0x8c59b0b6a3980d20264a9abb57d9d13860c63a3c~211KJordan, Lebanon, Cyprus, Pakistan, Syria, Turkey, Yemen
0xac4a9aef017fd7f2008c7c40762e63843553239d~203KTurkey, Syria, Cyprus, Jordan
0x2bf01d628f7d9cc38672dbb36ca94ebdd1b5a7c3~113KCyprus

What you should do

Stop trading on UMA-resolved markets until the conflict is addressed.

Your positions may be resolved by voters who have a financial stake in the outcome.

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